Director, Forecasting - Portfolio and Goals

Job Description Summary

Location: East Hanover
The Insights and Decision Science (IDS) team is dedicated to enabling improved decision making at Novartis by leveraging superior data to identify actionable insights that drive enhanced performance. We collaborate closely with the US business, bringing insights and challenging ideas to empower smarter, data-driven decision-making. Reporting into the ED, Forecasting, the Dir, Forecasting - Portfolio and Goals is crucial in developing forecasts that align with brand strategies, ensuring that the organization is well-prepared to navigate market dynamics and capitalize on opportunities.
The Dir, Forecasting – Portfolio and Goals plays a pivotal role in delivering high-quality, timely insights that drive informed decision-making and strategic planning. This position plays a crucial role in supporting launch preparations, guiding teams in performance tracking, and ensuring that forecasts are both realistic and adaptable to changing conditions. This role will enable the busi-ness organization to drive optimal decisions on investments based on an accurate understanding of brand potential. This individual will work closely with the Business Performance, Decision Science, Data Science and Functional Excellence Reporting teams, ensuring accurate forecast in-formation is disseminated to all relevant stakeholders.
This position will be located at East Hanover, NU site and will not have the ability to be located remotely. This position will require 15% travel as defined by the business (domestic and/ or international).

Job Description

Key Responsibilities:

• Develop realistic, transparent, and assumption-driven demand forecasts, challenging assumptions and applying forecasting methodologies to support the brand strategy
• Prepare robust forecast assumptions by leveraging expertise and analogs from in-line Forecasting team and research from Insights and Analytics team
• Support launch preparations and guide the teams to set up clear post-launch performance tracking by creating and monitoring the short-term revenue forecasts, comparable to actuals in future, and recommending adjustments when applicable
• Maintain accountability for high quality, timely service delivery of forecasting analytic service requests, including requests for solutions requiring sophisticated statistical and machine learning approaches
• Oversee portfolio forecasting aggregations and support the US forecasting forum
• Ensure consistent delivery of analytics that drive informed decision-making, including the definition and development of models to be used in answering business and operational questions
• Develop new and innovative analytics models / methods for untapped opportunities, enabling the automation of routine measurements
• Create a checklist for best practices on decomposing forecasts into the granular elements at a subnational, segment level and ensure consistency with other forecast leads
• Coordinate with the IC team in CE Ops to provide territory-level growth goals that aggregate up to the national level
• Drive patient count requests for internal comms, external comms, and IR for all US
• Ensure that value assessments address the impact of key market dynamics and that internal events are logically designed and well-documented

What You’ll Bring to the Role:

Education: A Bachelor's degree in Business Administration, Statistics, Data Science, Economics, or a related field; an MBA or advanced degree is preferred

Novartis seeks an individual with extensive experience in the pharmaceutical or healthcare industry, with a strong understanding of market dynamics and regulatory environments. A proven track record of implementing forecasting strategies and driving business outcomes through data driven insights is crucial for this role. The candidate should excel in driving quality forecasts that align closely with actual outcomes.

Essential Requirements:

• 8-10 years of experience in forecasting, analytics, and strategic planning, or a similar role within the pharmaceutical or healthcare industry
• Commitment to driving and enabling data-driven decision making throughout all levels of the organization
• Experience in developing and applying various forecasting methodologies to support brand strategies and business objectives in the context of the pharmaceutical industry
• Demonstrated experience in fostering a culture of innovation and continuous improvement, developing new models and methods to enhance forecasting accuracy and efficiency
• Experience in managing multiple projects simultaneously, ensuring timely delivery and alignment with business goals
• Experience in managing relationships with key stakeholders, including senior leadership and external partners
• Ability to work effectively with cross-functional teams and drive strategic initiatives
• Excellent verbal and written communication skills to articulate and present forecast results to key stakeholders persuasively
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills with the ability to interpret complex data and generate actionable insights
• Proficiency in data analysis, statistical modeling, and machine learning techniques
• Ability to thrive in a fast-paced, dynamic environment and adapt to changing business needs and priorities

Novartis Compensation and Benefit Summary: The pay range for this position at commencement of employment is expected to be between $185,500.00 and $344,500.00/year; however, while salary ranges are effective from 1/1/25 through 12/31/25, fluctuations in the job market may necessitate adjustments to pay ranges during this period.  Further, final pay determinations will depend on various factors, including, but not limited to geographical location, experience level, knowledge, skills and abilities. The total compensation package for this position may also include other elements, including a sign-on bonus, restricted stock units, and discretionary awards in addition to a full range of medical, financial, and/or other benefits (including 401(k) eligibility and various paid time off benefits, such as vacation, sick time, and parental leave), dependent on the position offered. Details of participation in these benefit plans will be provided if an employee receives an offer of employment. If hired, employee will be in an “at-will position” and the Company reserves the right to modify base salary (as well as any other discretionary payment or compensation program) at any time, including for reasons related to individual performance, Company or individual department/team performance, and market factors.

EEO Statement:

The Novartis Group of Companies are Equal Opportunity Employers. We do not discriminate in recruitment, hiring, training, promotion or other employment practices for reasons of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, marital or veteran status, disability, or any other legally protected status. 

Accessibility and reasonable accommodations

The Novartis Group of Companies are committed to working with and providing reasonable accommodation to individuals with disabilities. If, because of a medical condition or disability, you need a reasonable accommodation for any part of the application process, or to perform the essential functions of a position, please send an e-mail to [email protected] or call +1(877)395-2339 and let us know the nature of your request and your contact information. Please include the job requisition number in your message.

Salary Range

$185,500.00 - $344,500.00

Skills Desired

Agility, Agility, Business Analytics, Competitive Intelligence, Cross-Functional Collaboration, Customer Insights, Customer Orientation, Data Analysis, Databases, Data Science, Forecasting, Go-To-Market Strategy, Healthcare Sector Understanding, Influencing Skills, Innovation, Machine Learning (Ml), Marketing Analytics, Market Research, Microsoft Excel, People Management, Predictive Analytics, Product Marketing, Qualitative Research, Quantitative Research, R (Programming Language) {+ 5 more}